Ukrainian crude sunflower oil fell $25 to $1,180/t DAP western border and $20 to $1,205/t FOB Danube on 12 November, following lower palm oil and softer European six-port offers. Plants cut the sunflower seed bid for a second session, by some UAH 300 to UAH 18,900/t CPT plant (44% oil content, as is), while rapeseed bids held.
Key stat updates
Sunflower oil exports in September-October reached about 0.83 mln t, 15% behind the same period last year as sea routes stay restricted, while rapeseed exports in July-October reached about 1.9 mln t, 9% behind last year.
Global changesChart 1
Chart 1 · Sunflower oil: six ports minus Ukraine border, Nov shipment, USD/t
Malaysian palm oil fell $12 to $1,085/t on rising stocks, and European six-port sunflower oil followed, down $20 to $1,330/t FOB. Ukrainian oil lost more, so the gap between the two widened to $150/t. Indian refiners paused buying Black Sea sunflower oil for December loading while they wait for lower offers.
Euronext rapeseed for February fell EUR 4 to EUR 471/t, following weaker CBOT beans, which caps the benchmark that Ukrainian rapeseed export bids follow.
Local changes
Plants can store only 5-7 days of oil output, and tanks are now close to full because oil is leaving slowly. Crushers say a further slowdown in rail and Danube loadings would force some lines to stop, which is why the seed bid keeps coming down.
Soybean processors keep competing for beans as farmers hold back supply, with western-region purchase prices at about UAH 17,500/t. The port bid did not move, so the cost of the beans sits with crushers for now.
Price update
Ukrainian soybean meal rose $5 to $395/t CPT Danube ports, while bean bids at the ports did not move, which leaves the gain with crushers for now.
The sunflower crush margin at the western border fell $3 to $165/t on 12 November from $168/t: the lower oil price took about $10 off, and cheaper seed gave back about $7, with meal unchanged. An indicative Danube margin eased $2 to $153/t for the same reason, and neither is easy to lock in while oil leaves the plants slowly.
Planting & harvest
The sunflower harvest is nearly finished, with yields about 10% above last year in the south and centre. Farmers are delivering oilier seed, 48-52% on dry basis, which leaves plants with more oil to store from every tonne crushed.
Weather alerts
Frost on the ground is forecast in the north and east this week, with night temperatures down to -4 C. Late fields of soybeans and sunflower still waiting for harvest risk losses if work is delayed, and winter rapeseed that has already emerged is exposed without snow cover.
Logistics
About 20 vessels are waiting to leave the Danube through Sulina, and although the queue is moving faster, charterers on demurrage are holding off new contracts. That slows new oil sales on the Danube route, the main outlet while sea ports stay restricted.
Geopolitics
Brent crude rose $2 to $79/bbl on supply-disruption fears in the Middle East, which lifts the biodiesel floor under the whole vegetable oil complex. The move has not reached sunflower oil yet, as weaker palm oil outweighed it this week.
Regulatory updates
The Ministry of Economy confirmed that the export duty on soybeans and rapeseed stays, rejecting farmers' calls to remove it. That keeps raw seed exports less attractive than crushing at home, which supports domestic plant bids.
Directional calls
Sunflowerseed
Bearish
confidence: high
Rapeseed
Neutral
confidence: low
Soybean
Bullish
confidence: medium
Insights
Sunflowerseed: India brought in about 0.17 mln t of sunflower oil in October, a five-month low, and its refiners have now stepped back from December loading. With exports 15% behind last year and tanks near full, border oil at $1,180/t has pushed the crush margin to $165/t, near the bottom of its 30-day $163-187/t range.
Rapeseed: French rapeseed delivered Rouen slipped EUR 3 to EUR 476/t with Euronext February at EUR 471/t, while German crushers kept buying for biodiesel with Brent at $79/bbl. More seed stays in the country, but the retained export duty steers it to domestic plants rather than forcing farmers to sell cheaper. Treat it as range trading until Euronext February leaves EUR 465-475/t.
Soybean: Argentine soybean meal rose $4 to $402/t FOB as farmers there slowed bean sales, and Ukrainian meal followed with a $5 gain to $395/t CPT Danube ports. Ukrainian crushers are keeping the extra margin while farmers hold back beans and frost threatens late fields.
Sources
CBOT, EU Commission, Euronext, Internal calculation, NBU, UkrHydroMet, USDA, Industry associations, Trade press, Confidential market sources
SAMPLE REPORT. All figures and dates are illustrative and fictional. For informational purposes only. Not investment, trading, or legal advice.
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